Did the DOJ already destroy Google’s AI Advantage?

Natalia Kapani Ten Eyck is a 3L at Harvard Law School. She holds an MBA in Finance and a BA in Economics from The University of Chicago.

Google’s stock is up 80% [1]since it launched Gemini 2.0 in December 2024[2], and investors remain bullish,but a 2020 antitrust loss could pull the foundation out of Google’s AI advantage.

The relationship between Google’s early domination of search and its rapid ascent in AI has never been clearer. Google built its AI business on exclusive search data, which came under legal fire in 2020. Between its 2020 loss and the 2025 enforcement, Google built Gemini [3]. Now, it must turn over the data it used to build its AI business, threatening a product that did not even exist in 2020.

In 2020, the Justice Department sued Google over anticompetitive practices tied to Search, Ads, and Chrome. The DOJ claimed victory in the case, but five years later, the senior antitrust official currently leading the remedies trial warned the Court that Google had quietly reemerged as a monopolist; [4] now in the AI sphere. Now Google is asking a federal judge to soften those remedies, arguing that penalties imposed in a search case to remedy past monopolistic behavior will cripple its AI competitiveness [5]. Other tech leaders, including Elon Musk, are doubtful, calling Google’s recent deal to put Gemini in Apple products “unreasonable” and a case of market dominance [6].

2020: The DOJ successfully argued that Google had a search Monopoly, but the fallout from that ruling continues.

The Dept of Justice brought its initial suit in 2020, long before ChatGPT and Gemini were on the radar of the average tech consumer. Google dealt in search and ads, and that is what the DOJ targeted.

The DOJ alleged that Google abused its power as the world’s leading search engine to stifle competition. Under the DOJ’s theory, Google leveraged its search position to prevent competitors from reaching most consumers. The government alleged that Google locked up distribution through exclusionary agreements with Apple, Samsung, and mobile carriers. These agreements made Google the default search engine, and, in some cases, prohibited the preinstallation of any rival search engines on these devices [7]. Under the agreement with Apple, Google became the exclusive default search engine for Safari [8]. Under Android agreements, Google was the exclusive default search engine, and Android phones were also required to preinstall Google apps [9]. As a result of these agreements, Google controlled nearly 80%+ of the search market. This access gave Google a repository of data that captured nearly all of the US.

The trial's outcome was mixed. In May of 2025, Judge Mehta issued remedies to address the 2020 decision, but fell short of the breakup the DOJ sought [10]. Still, these mandates are proving problematic for Google’s growing AI business.

2025: Judge Mehta’s search-focused remedies erode Google’s AI foundation.

Through a long-awaited remedy proceeding in May of 2025, Judge Mehta’s attempted to address the advantages called out in the 2020 proceedings [11]. Mehta barred Google from requiring exclusive contracts, like those implicated in 2020 [12]. Google was also required to share Search Index, Click, and Query data with competitors [13]. The goal was to reopen markets that Google had previously blocked.

Some of the most valuable inputs for training AI systems are Search Index data, a full repository of content Google has crawled from the web, and Click-and-Query data, which records how users interact with search results [14]. This data, which the Court required Google to make public, would be invaluable to Gemini's competitors, such as OpenAI. They reveal what information exists, and, maybe more importantly, how humans seek it. Google acquired this data over decades of search dominance, a dominance reinforced by its exclusivity.

2026: Google must release its data, creating a major problem for Gemini.

Google’s businesses, including its AI business, have been built on the very data and exclusivity that the DOJ’s case threatens, and its response has been telling.

On January 16, 2026, the Company appealed, warning that data sharing would have devastating effects on its ability to compete in AI [15]. The same data advantages a Judge found anticompetitive in 2020 are now indispensable to Google’s AI business. Essentially, Google acquired its AI position through the exclusionary agreements and the data that flowed from its search dominance. Google, and critics of the Justice Department’s case, may argue that enforcing search remedies now amounts to “picking winners” in AI. But Judge Mehta notes that Search and AI are inextricably linked at this point, and he must enforce the loss that happened five years ago to remedy improper Search practices and keep AI competitive.

In the remedies trial, Google sought to distinguish between search and AI, noting that although it dominates search, AI is an entirely different and more competitive market. Judge Mehta rejected the idea that these two industries are separate, instead finding them complementary. In finding this relationship, the court noted that the effect on AI competition may be a feature of the remedy, not a bug.

Under this theory, Judge Mehta is proactively interfering in the AI market to prevent the kind of domination that Google had in search. But this intervention may be too little too late, given Google’s control over Android and its new partnership with Apple.

If Google is in a vulnerable position, then why all the concern over the Apple partnership?

It's no secret Apple has struggled to keep pace in the AI market. Gemini is Apple’s life raft. Siri will now be equipped with Google AI technology, [16] a lifeline that will accelerate its AI-powered version of Siri, after significant delays [17]. Formally, the deal may comply with non-exclusivity requirements. Functionally, it places Google’s AI at the center of one of the world’s most dominant device platforms and gives Google continued access to Apple users’ data through Siri [18].

Combined with Google’s control of Android, Gemini now touches nearly the entire mobile market. The data flywheel continues to spin.

The 2020 case was not backward-looking. It was a warning, and how it is enforced may determine the course of AI competition for years to come.

[1] Yahoo. Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) Stock Quote & Summary. Yahoo Finance, 2026.https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAN0bz6v_o4V-oyf-72d76yuBuRgPVJrVmWC1EYnT8d7YcTBHzYSMfak1c6dNCHKReOwdfqlLZ_sub0nRByT5M3zk_nD2WKNPJKPiY4PFuc3YREjnWsNBJTZTpKBgmdOSutuZvGGDV73m_IqiPzVREgAB6GrwH5wrGgEBoLnEKTrk. December 16, 2024 close at 192.96 and opened at 349.00 on February 3, 2026, representing an 80% increase.

[2] Hassabis, Demis & Kavukcuoglu, Koray (on behalf of the Gemini team). Introducing Gemini 2.0: Our New AI Model for the Agentic Era. Google, 2024. https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/google-deepmind/google-gemini-ai-update-december-2024/.

[3] Knight, Will. Google Just Launched Gemini, Its Long-Awaited Answer to ChatGPT. WIRED, 2023.https://www.wired.com/story/google-gemini-ai-model-chatgpt/.

[4]Diaz, Jaclyn. In a Major Antitrust Ruling, a Judge Lets Google Keep Chrome but Levies Other Penalties. NPR, 2025.https://www.npr.org/2025/09/02/nx-s1-5478625/google-chrome-doj-antitrust-ruling.

[5]Godoy, Jody. Google Asks US Judge to Defer Order Forcing It to Share Data While It Appeals. Reuters, 2026. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/google-asks-us-judge-defer-order-forcing-it-share-data-while-it-appeals-2026-01-16/.

[6]Moore, James. Elon Musk is Right About Apple and Google AI Deal – and That Should Worry Us. The Independent, 2026. https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/elon-musk-apple-google-ai-deal-antitrust-artificial-intelligence-b2899569.html.

[7] Sykes, Jay B. District Court Holds That Google Unlawfully Monopolizes Online Search: Overview and Potential Remedies. Congressional Research Service, 2024. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/LSB11216.

[8] Owen, Malcolm. Google’s Default Search Payments to Apple at Risk in Antitrust Lawsuit. AppleInsider, 2025.https://appleinsider.com/articles/25/05/06/googles-default-search-payments-to-apple-at-risk-in-antitrust-lawsuit.

[9] Supra, note 7.

^[10] Diaz, Jaclyn. In a Major Antitrust Ruling, a Judge Lets Google Keep Chrome but Levies Other Penalties. NPR, 2025.https://www.npr.org/2025/09/02/nx-s1-5478625/google-chrome-doj-antitrust-ruling.

[11] Sykes, Jay B. Federal Court Endorses Behavioral Remedies, Rejects Structural Relief, in Google Search Antitrust Litigation. Congressional Research Service, 2025.https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/LSB/HTML/LSB11362.html.

[12] Id.

[13] Diaz, Jaclyn. A Judge Ordered Google to Share Its Search Data. What Does That Mean for User Privacy? NPR, 2025. https://www.npr.org/2025/09/19/nx-s1-5538073/google-search-antitrust-data-privacy.

[14] Id.

[15] Godoy, Jody. Google Asks US Judge to Defer Order Forcing It to Share Data While It Appeals. Reuters, 2026.https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/google-asks-us-judge-defer-order-forcing-it-share-data-while-it-appeals-2026-01-16/.

[16] Subin, Samantha. Apple Picks Google’s Gemini to Run AI-Powered Siri Coming This Year. CNBC, 2026.https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/12/apple-google-ai-siri-gemini.html.

[17] Orr, Andrew. Apple’s AI Rollout Leaves Siri Behind & Long-Time Fans Are Asking Questions. AppleInsider, 2025.https://appleinsider.com/articles/25/06/10/apples-ai-rollout-leaves-siri-behind-long-time-fans-are-asking-questions.

[18] Huang, Kalley. Apple Teams Up With Google for A.I. in Its Products. The New York Times, 2026.https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/12/technology/apple-google-ai-partnership.html.